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2020 Decade Predictions

A month abroad will start to rewire many thoughts. The biggest changes are from being exposed to so many other cultures and daily living. Most importantly, it gives relative position to my +30 years in San Francisco, USA. Here are some thoughts…

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change will win believers with time. We’ve done too much damage to our environment for the reprecussions to not continue surfacing over the next decade. We also don’t have the know how to reverse or affect the climate holistically for the better.

The climate change disaster may bring people back from feelings/emotions to science/facts. America has been devoid of logic for too long and it will come to bite us. I digress but at the moment the USA is on a fantasy float. I fear the crash because hitting reality will be like getting knocked unconscious by Mike Tyson and hitting the earth face first.

Climate change will destroy large chunks of biodiversity leading to more restrictive gene pool with missing links in the circle of life and life as we know it will be more susceptible to disease without the diversity.

Lack of biodiversity will not remerge naturally but can be frankensteined back with science. We will bring back species but it will lead to as many issues and will not happen at the right pace nor scale to solve issues in the decade to come.

Extinction events occur regularly without front page news. It takes years of research to know all the parts of the circle of life major mammals have on the ecosystem. We do not have enough time to understand what impact in the circle of life these insects play before they go extinct. The circle of life is far too complex for us to piece together because we think linearly. Our brains are designed to compartmentalize, they not designed to understand the whole.

TECHNOLOGY

The rich and intelligent will continue to take a greater percentage of wealth as technology is a winner take all game. This will be accelerated with AI and machine learning.

The blockchain will be one of the few tools to rebalance power back to the individual. It accomplishes this by restructuring control fundamentally from a pyramid shape to a circle.

Space race will come back to the forefront. Young kids will once again dream of growing up to be an astronaut over say an athlete. This is telling because life on Earth from a quality of life may continue to ride but beyond the measured metrics I believe true quality of life to be decreasing in the 1st world.

Virtual Reality will begin to take mind share from physical reality. It’s too powerful and inticing. It will be especially interesting to those less mobile: elderly and the young. It’s a portal device which teleports to user into a different world. While it will never replace the sensory depth of the real world it will quicky exceed the real world in novelty, choice, and accessibility. Note if minecraft style virtual reality spaces are community built upon blockchain type technologies Bitcoin will rise as a universally accepted form of payment.

DISEASE

Coronavirus going around right now in Asia but it’s already spread to nearly every country I’ve looked up. People often ask can we scale? I think the answer is yes but at the cost is heavy. When it comes to infectious disease it’s terrifying.

There are only a few isolated cases in SE Asia but thinking about the density of people in China and India alone make you shiver over the thought of how fast a disease like this can spread give it’s characteristics of being transferrable before symptoms show.

I’d diseases with pandemic capabilities become more of a normal occurance in this next decade. Like the weather extremes which suddenly beecome the norm within a decade, I believe this decade to become a time where new terrifying diseases become far more frequent. This will also prevent freedom of movement as countries will lock down far more often and people will be more fearful of travel.

DRUGS

People will start using psychedelics more for understanding, creativity, and humanity. Science is now discovering what many “bad people” have known for decades. It started with pot. It will soon be mushrooms, LSD, and other forms of mind opening substances.

If ever the “music stops” people will take pause to ask the really important life questions. Fun may be overtaken by purpose. The importance of self acceptance (from within) will be more desirable than acceptance from peers.

SOCIAL MEDIA

It’s already permeated society. It’s effectiveness and mind control and time consumption is undisputed. The question is what comes next? I believe this era of social media will be looked back on as a dark time in the history of this tech. Much like cigarettes as Benioff states.

That said I think there is a second act for social media which will resemble something much healthier. Much more of a utility than an obsession. This will be a golden era for social media. As of now, folks are simply trying to experiment with it without fully grasping the consequences.

THE CHINA CHALLENGE

The dream for upward mobility lives is in full force within China. We had an American Dream which has all but faded for those born in the states. That mentality is an immigrant mentality in the states and it’s sad but true as the deck is stacked high and hard against normal people. The American Dream is rarely found in America but when it is it gets promoted widely so everyone still believes it’s true regardless of the statical improbability. The irony is the American Dream has moved and now lives in China.

America has way too much dead weight. The strong much pull the weak but we’re reaching a point were the benefits of being productive are not that much greater than being unproductive. The spoils of having it good for too long. We lost our fangs. Too many systems are broken including social security, medicare, welfare, homelessness, depression, and addiction.

FREEDOM

There’s a thread I love r/latestagecapitalism which I couldn’t agree more with but I think the same ethos is true of freedom. We’ve reached some strange form of late stage freedom where it’s run amok.

Freedom without logic and reason is a wild west. The term anything is possible used to be used a positive. Now it has become a circus. Logic need not apply in 2020. The wild thing is it used to be that freedom was more black and white. Todays world seems to be generating additional linkages of freedom but in my opinion like many American endeavors we’re placing our fight energy in all the wrong places. Our wins are all about feeling good yet don’t fundmantally change much and are always narrow minded.

Seeing Americans running wild with freedom is American to its core but should be ask if there is such things too much freedom? Food for thought: the homeless people on the streets (many with mental illnesses) have more rights than I do. I can’t take a shit on the street and not end up in handcuffs. I can’t bite local store owners without meeting a policemen. I can walk down the street with a small axe swinging it indiscriminately at nearby objects without getting institutionalized. Yet this is the norm in San Francsico.

Freedom’s limits will be severely tested in this decade as people pushing it’s limits are also taxing the hell out of the system. The differing ends of freedom also create a type of freedom inequality which is rarely discussed. If you think income ineqaulity is bad wait until freedom inequality arrives. It’s far more complex are it’s not linear as freedom has far more dimension than money which is quantitative.

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