this is all off the cuff but this is a rough cut of how I see things playing out, primarily informed by my understanding of our government, businesses, and citizens.
usa will handle this situation poorly. like many things which are on our doorstep it’s another once in a generation type of scare which makes it difficult to prepare for as there are few playbooks to work from.
in our case we have had the benefit of watching other countries deal with it before it hit our shores. sadly, it appears we have done little to prepare for it.
worse yet, the many cases of people citing they cannot and will not be tested. this willful denial of testing is so American. we cannot have a problem if the numbers say so. it’s a lot like our stock markets at the moment.
the difference with the coronavirus is that people die and the issue propogates exponentially when not dealt with aggressively on the front end.
here is my prediction: we are currently at 12 deaths and 225 cases. by end of March we will be well into the thousands with over half of the states reporting cases.
I don’t foresee the fed forcing cities to be quarantined and will leave that to cities and the cities will leave that to companies.
companies will be forced into a difficult decision and will likely offer optional work from home choices to their enployees. the real economy will suffer. the fake economy (the stock market) will flourish hitting new all time highs.
by end of April we will start to see the beginnings of the outbreak. the state and federal governments will begin to take more aggressive China style measures but unlike China we will have let the cat out the bag too far and our slow reactions will cause the recovery period to be prolonged.
this fear will sweep the nation while Netflix is in production making their next hit series documenting the Coronavirus.